Can adolescents predict significant life events?

被引:33
作者
de Bruin, Wandi Bruine [1 ]
Parker, Andrew M.
Fischhoff, Baruch
机构
[1] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Social & Decis Sci, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
[2] RAND Corp, Pittsburgh, PA USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
adolescents; risk; vulnerability; risk perception; probability judgments;
D O I
10.1016/j.jadohealth.2007.03.014
中图分类号
B844 [发展心理学(人类心理学)];
学科分类号
040202 ;
摘要
We examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely. (C) 2007 Society for Adolescent Medicine. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:208 / 210
页数:3
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