Regional carrying capacity evaluation and prediction based on GIS in the Yangtze River Delta, China

A generalized conceptual framework for regional carrying capacity evaluation along with its implementation approaches is introduced in this article, demonstrated by the case study in the Yangtze River Delta region, China. Following the data preprocessing, assimilative capacity, supportive capacity, and loading, the three essential aspects of regional carrying capacity, have been evaluated by principal components analysis and/or ecological footprint method. In terms of the characteristics of the results, sustainability criteria are established and used to determine the developmental states from 1997 to 2005 in the study area. Future states from 2006 to 2015 are predicted by a modified cellular automata model, into which an artificial neural network is incorporated to fit the transition rule. As revealed from the results of evaluation and prediction, the overall developmental states are worsening. For the sake of the sustainable development in this region, more attention should be paid to these results.