The demography of Clethrionomys rufocanus: from mathematical and statistical models to further field studies

Until recently, most studies on microtines have focused on patterns in population dynamics or demography without providing a quantitative assessment of the robustness of the inferred patterns as well as a link between demography and population dynamics. Developments in statistical time-series analysis on the one hand and in capture-recapture statistical modelling on the other hand, now allow for improved analyses. We review some of the recent developments in the capture-recapture statistical methodology - restricting ourselves to methods most relevant to the demography of small mammals. A 5-years study of the gray-sided vole Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan was used as an example to explore some models. We then provided a framework for further demographic analysis of microtine populations, including C. rufocanus. Investigating the relative importance of the different demographic parameters (e.g. survival, maturation, dispersal) will require studies done on larger scale than is commonly done today, with more effort devoted to the low density phase. Special emphasis is given to study-design, and to experimental designs tailored to the study of specific demographic mechanisms.