Simulating fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes

被引:168
作者
Hargrove, WW
Gardner, RH
Turner, MG
Romme, WH
Despain, DG
机构
[1] Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Appalachian Lab, Frostburg, MD 21532 USA
[2] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Computat Phys & Engn Div, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA
[3] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53706 USA
[4] Ft Lewis Coll, Dept Biol, Durango, CO 81301 USA
[5] Natl Pk Serv, Yellowstone Natl Pk, WY 82190 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
fire model; fire effects; cellular automaton; EMBYR; landscape model; patch formation; pattern; simulation; wildfire; Yellowstone National Park;
D O I
10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00368-9
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
A broad-scale probabilistic model of forest fires, EMBYR, has been developed to simulate the effects of large fires burning through heterogeneous landscapes. Fire ignition and spread are simulated on a gridded landscape by (1) examining each burning site at each time step, (2) independently evaluating the probability of spread to eight neighbors based on fuel type, fuel moisture, wind speed and direction, and (3) distributing firebrands to downwind sites, where the probability of ignition of new fires is a function of fuel type and moisture conditions. Low values for the probability of spread, I, produce a dendritic burn pattern resembling a slow, meandering fire, whereas higher values of I produce solid patterns similar to a rapidly moving, intensely burning fire. I had to be greater than a critical value, i(c), estimated to lie between 0.250 and 0.251, to have a 50% chance of propagating across the landscape by adjacent spread alone. The rate of spread of fire at I = 0.30 was nearly four times faster when firebrands were included in the simulations, and nearly eight times faster in the presence of moderate wind. Given the importance of firebrands in projecting fire spread, there is a need for better empirical information on fire spotting. A set of model parameters was developed to represent the weather conditions and fuel types on the subalpine plateau of Yellowstone National Park, WY, USA. Simulation experiments were performed to reveal relationships between fire and landscape-scale heterogeneity of fuels. In addition, EMBYR was used to explore fire patterns in the subalpine plateau by simulating four scenarios of weather and fuel conditions. The results of repeated simulations were compared by evaluating risk (the cumulative frequency distribution of the area burned) as a function of the change in weather conditions. Estimates of risk summarized the high degree of variability experienced in natural systems, the difficulty of predicting fire behavior when conditions are near critical thresholds, a quantification of uncertainties concerning future weather conditions, and useful tool for assessing potential wildfire effects. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:243 / 263
页数:21
相关论文
共 65 条
[1]   FIRE PROPAGATION IN A 2-D RANDOM MEDIUM [J].
ALBINET, G ;
SEARBY, G ;
STAUFFER, D .
JOURNAL DE PHYSIQUE, 1986, 47 (01) :1-7
[2]   PREDICTED AND OBSERVED RATES OF SPREAD OF CROWN FIRES IN IMMATURE JACK PINE [J].
ALBINI, FA ;
STOCKS, BJ .
COMBUSTION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 1986, 48 (1-2) :65-76
[3]  
ALBINI FA, 1976, INT30 USDA FOR SERV
[4]  
ANDERSEN HE, 1983, INT305 USDA FOR SERV
[5]  
ANDREWS PL, 1989, NATL WILDFIRE COORDI
[6]  
[Anonymous], GRADIENT MODELING RE
[7]  
ANTONOVSKI AY, 1992, SYSTEMS ANAL GLOBAL, P373
[8]   A SPATIAL MODEL FOR STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON THE STRUCTURE OF LANDSCAPES SUBJECT TO LARGE DISTURBANCES [J].
BAKER, WL ;
EGBERT, SL ;
FRAZIER, GF .
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, 1991, 56 (1-4) :109-125
[9]   SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS MULTISCALE RESPONSE OF LANDSCAPES TO FIRE SUPPRESSION [J].
BAKER, WL .
OIKOS, 1993, 66 (01) :66-71
[10]  
Bartell S. M., 1992, Ecological risk estimation.