Probability distributions for cyclones and anticyclones from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the INM RAS climate model

被引:57
作者
Akperov, M. G. [1 ]
Bardin, M. Yu. [2 ]
Volodin, E. M. [3 ]
Golitsyn, G. S. [1 ]
Mokhov, I. I. [1 ]
机构
[1] Russian Acad Sci, Oboukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Moscow 119017, Russia
[2] Inst Global Climate & Ecol, Moscow 107258, Russia
[3] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Numer Math, Moscow 119991, Russia
基金
俄罗斯基础研究基金会;
关键词
D O I
10.1134/S0001433807060047
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Analysis of statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones in the latitudinal belt between 20 degrees and 80 degrees N has been performed with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and simulations with the general circulation climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS GCCM). The model results have been analyzed for the second half of the 20th century against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and for the 21st century with the SRES-A2 anthropogenic scenario. Overall for the 20th century, no statistically significant changes in the number of cyclones and anticyclones are obtained from either the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data [1] or from simulations with the INM RAS GCCM [2]. It is found that the total number of cyclones and anticyclones decreased in the 20th century as compared to the 21st century. It is shown that cumulative distributions of the number of cyclones and anticyclones by their intensities and areas have an exponential form from both the reanalysis data and the model simulations, although the corresponding exponents are different.
引用
收藏
页码:705 / 712
页数:8
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