Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome

被引：986

作者：

Lipsitch, M

Cohen, T

Cooper, B

Robins, JM

Ma, S

James, L

Gopalakrishna, G

Chew, SK

Tan, CC

Samore, MH

Fisman, D

Murray, M

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Minist Hlth, Epidemiol & Dis Control Div, Singapore 169854, Singapore

[3] Univ Utah, Dept Med, Salt Lake City, UT 84132 USA

[4] McMaster Univ, Dept Clin Epidemiol & Biostat, Hamilton, ON L8N 3Z5, Canada

[5] City Hamilton Publ Hlth & Community Serv Dept, Hamilton, ON L8R 3L5, Canada

[6] Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Infect Dis Unit, Boston, MA 02114 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2003年 / 300卷 / 5627期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1086616

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.

引用

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页数：5

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