The expected extinction time of a population within a system of interacting biological populations

The quasi-stationary distribution of a population within a system of interacting populations is approximated by a stochastic logistic process. The parameters of this process can be expressed in the parameters of the full system. Using the diffusion approximation, an expression for the expected extinction time is derived from this logistic process. Since the expected extinction time is expressed in the parameters of the full system, the effect of these parameters on the extinction risk can be easily evaluated, which may be of use for studies in ecology, conservation biology and epidemiology. The outcome is compared with simulation results for the case of a prey-predator system.