Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers

被引：7

作者：

Aukutsionek, SP

Belianin, AV ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Russian Acad Sci, Inst World Econ & Int Relat, Moscow, Russia

[2] Russian Acad Sci, Russian Econ Barometer, Moscow, Russia

[3] Univ Manchester, Manchester, Lancs, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY | 2001年 / 22卷 / 05期

关键词：

calibration; overconfidence; survey statistics; transition economy;

D O I：

10.1016/S0167-4870(01)00061-7

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper addresses the issue of quality and calibration of business forecasts on the basis of empirical data collected in a longitudinal postal survey of Russian managers in 1996-1999. The quality of forecasts was found to be typically poor, and most managers have exhibited overconfidence by thinking their forecasts are good. Robustness of these conclusions is analysed and discussed, together with their plausible economic implications. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

引用

页码：661 / 692

页数：32

共 54 条

[1] Realism in confidence judgments as a function of working in dyads or alone [J].