Numerical simulation of permafrost growth and decay

A series of numerical models on permafrost growth and decay are presented with special emphasis on the climatic conditions in western Europe during the last glacial stage. Numerical modelling of growth and decay of the active layer suggests penetration depths in the range between 0.6 to 1.4 m. Permafrost is estimated to have grown, depending on the sediment type, to a thickness of 90 m to 140 m in northern Germany and The Netherlands within 10 000 y during the peak period of the last glacial stage. Permafrost continued to exist at depth for about 2000 y after the climatic improvement following the Younger Dryas. Permafrost growth under rivers and lakes is shown to be unlikely under the climatic conditions of the last glacial stage in northern Germany. A time period of 10 000 to 42 000 years and a massive climatic excursion (of the order of >11 degrees C) is required to remove the thick permafrost layers in Siberia and Alaska of today. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.