Modeling complex medical decision problems with the Archimedes model

In an ideal world, low-cost, powerful, and ethical clinical trials would decide which treatments work best. In the real world, clinical trials are often too time-consuming, too expensive, unethical, or even impossible to perform. How, then, can we obtain answers to inform patient care? We need a structured framework that uses the best evidence and captures relevant complexities. Decision analysis meets these requirements but raises a new question: How do we decide if we can trust the predictions of a decision model?" © 2005 American College of Physicians."