Stable incidence rates of tuberculosis (TB) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative South African gold miners during a decade of epidemic HIV-associated TB

During the last decade, annual tuberculosis ( TB) case-notification rates increased 4-fold, to 14000 cases/100,000 person-years, in the study workforce, among whom prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was 30% in 2000. Three separate cohort studies, totalling 6454 HIV-negative participants, were combined and analyzed for time trends. Observed incidence of TB varied between 962 (1991-1994) and 1589 (1999-2000) cases/100,000 person-years (P = .17, test for trend). There was, however, a progressive increase in age, and, for each period, older age was associated with increased incidence rates of TB (P < .001). Having adjusted for age differences, there was no significant association between incidence of TB and calendar period (P = 81, test for trend). Relative to 1991-1994, multivariate-adjusted incidence-rate ratios were 0.94, for 1995-1997, 0.96, for 1998-1999, and 1.05, for 1999-2000. Preventing a secondary epidemic of TB among HIV-negative individuals may be achievable with conventional means, even in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB.