DO HOUSE PRICES DRIVE CONSUMPTION GROWTH? THE COINCIDENT CYCLES OF HOUSE PRICES AND CONSUMPTION IN THE UK

被引：55

作者：

Attanasio, Orazio ^{[1
]}

Leicester, Andrew ^{[1
]}

Wakefield, Matthew ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] UCL, London WC1E 6BT, England

[2] Univ Bologna, I-40126 Bologna, Italy

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION | 2011年 / 9卷 / 03期

关键词：

D91; E21; MARKOV-CHAIN APPROXIMATIONS; BOOMS; BUSTS;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01021.x

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper uses a realistic structural lifecycle model of consumption and housing decisions to understand how data might distinguish different mechanisms that explain the correlation between house prices and consumption. The model includes price and earnings shocks estimated from data (the latter including aggregate and idiosyncratic components), and incorporates realistic features of the UK mortgage market. We simulate the model using more than 30 years of realized shocks and under counterfactual scenarios. Our results confirm the intuition of earlier studies: house price shocks should have a larger effect on the consumption of older households and earnings shocks on young households.

引用

页码：399 / 435

页数：37

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