The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

被引：237

作者：

Kreibich, Heidi ^{[1
]}

Van Loon, Anne F. ^{[2
]}

Schroeter, Kai ^{[1
,3
]}

Ward, Philip J. ^{[2
]}

Mazzoleni, Maurizio ^{[2
]}

Sairam, Nivedita ^{[1
]}

Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho ^{[4
]}

Agafonova, Svetlana ^{[5
]}

AghaKouchak, Amir ^{[6
]}

Aksoy, Hafzullah ^{[7
]}

Alvarez-Garreton, Camila ^{[9
,10
]}

Aznar, Blanca ^{[10
]}

Balkhi, Laila ^{[11
]}

Barendrecht, Marlies H. ^{[2
]}

Biancamaria, Sylvain ^{[12
]}

Bos-Burgering, Liduin ^{[13
]}

Bradley, Chris ^{[14
]}

Budiyono, Yus ^{[15
]}

Buytaert, Wouter ^{[16
]}

Capewell, Lucinda ^{[14
]}

Carlson, Hayley ^{[12
]}

Cavus, Yonca ^{[17
,18
,19
]}

Couasnon, Anais ^{[2
]}

Coxon, Gemma ^{[20
,21
]}

Daliakopoulos, Ioannis ^{[22
]}

de Ruiter, Marleen C. ^{[2
]}

Delus, Claire ^{[23
]}

Erfurt, Mathilde ^{[19
]}

Esposito, Giuseppe ^{[24
]}

Francois, Didier ^{[23
]}

Frappart, Frederic ^{[25
]}

Freer, Jim ^{[20
,21
,26
]}

Frolova, Natalia ^{[5
]}

Gain, Animesh K. ^{[27
,28
]}

Grillakis, Manolis ^{[29
]}

Grima, Jordi Oriol ^{[10
]}

Guzman, Diego A. ^{[30
]}

Huning, Laurie S. ^{[6
,31
]}

Ionita, Monica ^{[32
,33
,34
]}

Kharlamov, Maxim ^{[5
,35
]}

Khoi, Dao Nguyen ^{[36
]}

Kieboom, Natalie ^{[37
]}

Kireeva, Maria ^{[5
]}

Koutroulis, Aristeidis ^{[38
]}

Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo ^{[39
]}

Li, Hong-Yi ^{[4
]}

LLasat, Maria Carmen ^{[40
,41
]}

Macdonald, David ^{[42
]}

Mard, Johanna ^{[43
,44
]}

Mathew-Richards, Hannah ^{[37
]}

机构：

[1] GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Sect Hydrol, Potsdam, Germany

[2] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[3] Tech Univ Carolo Wilhelmina Braunschweig, Leichtweiss Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources, Div Hydrol & River Basin Management, Braunschweig, Germany

[4] Univ Houston, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Houston, TX 77204 USA

[5] Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia

[6] Univ Calif Irvine, Irvine, CA USA

[7] Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Istanbul, Turkey

[8] Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago, Chile

[9] Univ La Frontera, Dept Civil Engn, Temuco, Chile

[10] Barcelona Cicle Aigua SA, Operat Dept, Barcelona, Spain

[11] Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada

[12] Univ Toulouse, UPS, CNRS, CNES,IRD,LEGOS, Toulouse, France

[13] Deltares, Dept Groundwater Management, Delft, Netherlands

[14] Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England

[15] Agcy Assessment & Applicat Technol, Jakarta, Indonesia

[16] Imperial Coll London, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England

[17] Beykent Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Istanbul, Turkey

[18] Istanbul Tech Univ, Grad Sch, Istanbul, Turkey

[19] Univ Freiburg, Fac Environm & Nat Resources, Freiburg, Germany

[20] Univ Bristol, Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England

[21] Univ Bristol, Cabot Inst, Bristol, Avon, England

[22] Hellen Mediterranean Univ, Dept Agr, Iraklion, Greece

[23] Univ Lorraine, LOTERR, Metz, France

[24] CNR IRPI, Res Inst Geohydrol Protect, Cosenza, Italy

[25] Bordeaux Sci Agro, UMR ISPA, INRAE, Villenave Dornon, France

[26] Univ Saskatchewan, Ctr Hydrol, Canmore, AB, Canada

[27] MIT, Dept Urban Studies & Planning, Environm Policy & Planning Grp, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[28] Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Econ, Venice, Italy

[29] Fdn Res & Technol Hellas, Inst Mediterranean Studies, Lab Geophys Remote Sensing & Archaeoenvironm, Rethimnon, Greece

[30] Pontificia Bolivariana Univ, Fac Civil Engn, Bucaramanga, Colombia

[31] Calif State Univ Long Beach, Long Beach, CA 90840 USA

[32] Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Palaeoclimate Dynam Grp, Alfred Wegener Inst, Bremerhaven, Germany

[33] Romanian Acad, Emil Racovita Inst Speleol, Cluj Napoca, Romania

[34] Stefan Cel Mare Univ, Fac Forestry, Forest Biometr Lab, Suceava, Romania

[35] Russian Acad Sci, Water Problem Inst, Moscow, Russia

[36] Univ Sci, Fac Environm, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

[37] Environm Agcy, Bristol, Avon, England

[38] Tech Univ Crete, Sch Chem & Environm Engn, Khania, Greece

[39] Serv Nacl Meteorol & Hidrol Peru, Lima, Peru

[40] Univ Barcelona, Dept Appl Phys, Barcelona, Spain

[41] Univ Barcelona, Water Res Inst, Barcelona, Spain

[42] British Geol Survey, Wallingford, Oxon, England

[43] Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden

[44] Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden

[45] Penn State Univ, Civil & Environm Engn, State Coll, PA USA

[46] Univ Sao Paulo, Escola Engn Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[47] Deltares, Dept Water Resources & Delta Management, Delft, Netherlands

[48] Trelleborg Municipal, Trelleborg, Sweden

[49] Lund Univ, Dept Water Resources Engn, Lund, Sweden

[50] Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany

来源：

NATURE | 2022年 / 608卷 / 7921期

基金：

荷兰研究理事会; 英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

SOCIAL VULNERABILITY; DISASTER LOSSES; ADAPTATION; HAZARD;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally(1,2), yet their impacts are still increasing(3). An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data(4,5). On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change(3).

引用

页码：80 / +

页数：14

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