Home economus? Economic information and economic voting

Although retrospective economic voting does not require voters to have precise information about recent economic conditions, it is arguably the case that the quality of retrospective voting as a democratic accountability mechanism hinges on the degree to which citizens have reasonably accurate perceptions of the state of the economy In this paper we test a model of the accuracy of individuals' perceptions of national economic conditions. Utilizing data collected in a survey of residents of Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, during the 1992 presidential campaign, we depict perceptual accuracy as a function of four sets of independent variables: (1) personal characteristics likely to enhance citizens' political and economic cognition; (2) perceptions of economic threat, (3) interest in politics and/or economics; and (4) exposure to media sources. Our findings point to the importance of personal characteristics, such as socioeconomic status, gender, race, and age, as well as retrospective personal evaluations, political interest, and media exposure in determining the accuracy of citizens' economic perceptions. Moreover, we provide preliminary evidence that perceptual inaccuracy has an indirect effect on vote choice in 1992 through its effect on retrospective sociotropic economic evaluations.