Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years

被引:15
作者
Duncan, Richard P. [1 ,2 ]
Fenwick, Pavla [3 ]
Palmer, Jonathan G. [3 ]
McGlone, Matt S. [1 ]
Turney, Chris S. M. [4 ]
机构
[1] Landcare Res, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand
[2] Lincoln Univ, Bioprotect Res Ctr, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand
[3] Gondwana Tree Ring Lab, Canterbury 7546, New Zealand
[4] Univ Exeter, Sch Geog, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
New Zealand; Dendrochronology; Atlantic multidecadal oscillation; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; Interhemispheric temperature variability; Multi-decadal temperature change; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURES; NEW-ZEALAND; 20TH-CENTURY TEMPERATURE; CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT; CLIMATE; CIRCULATION; VARIABILITY; SENSITIVITY; MILLENNIUM; PREDICTION;
D O I
10.1007/s00382-010-0794-2
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from ad 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a long-term perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30-60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural climate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.
引用
收藏
页码:1429 / 1438
页数:10
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