An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

被引：1350

作者：

Tian, Huaiyu ^{[1
]}

Liu, Yonghong ^{[1
]}

Li, Yidan ^{[1
]}

Wu, Chieh-Hsi ^{[2
]}

Chen, Bin ^{[3
]}

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[4
,5
,6
]}

Li, Bingying ^{[1
]}

Cai, Jun ^{[7
]}

Xu, Bo ^{[7
]}

Yang, Qiqi ^{[1
]}

Wang, Ben ^{[1
]}

Yang, Peng ^{[8
]}

Cui, Yujun ^{[9
]}

Song, Yimeng ^{[10
]}

Zheng, Pai ^{[11
]}

Wang, Quanyi ^{[8
]}

Bjornstad, Ottar N. ^{[12
,13
]}

Yang, Ruifu ^{[9
]}

Grenfell, Bryan T. ^{[14
,15
]}

Pybus, Oliver G. ^{[4
]}

Dye, Christopher ^{[4
,16
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Southampton, Sch Math Sci, Southampton, Hants, England

[3] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[4] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[5] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[6] Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA

[7] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Beijing Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing, Peoples R China

[9] Beijing Inst Microbiol & Epidemiol, State Key Lab Pathogen & Biosecur, Beijing, Peoples R China

[10] Univ Hong Kong, Dept Urban Planning & Design, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[11] Peking Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Occupat & Environm Hlth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[12] Penn State Univ, Dept Biol, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[13] Penn State Univ, Dept Entomol, Coll Agr Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[14] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Div Int Epidemiol & Populat Studies, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[15] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[16] Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Oxford, England

来源：

SCIENCE | 2020年 / 368卷 / 6491期

基金：

北京市自然科学基金; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

SPATIAL HIERARCHIES; HUMAN MOBILITY; IMPACT; WAVES;

D O I：

10.1126/science.abb6105

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

引用

页码：638 / +

页数：29

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