An explorative study on the clinical utility of baseline and serial serum tumour marker measurements in advanced upper gastrointestinal cancer

The value of early tumour marker changes during palliative chemotherapy in patients with upper gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma (UGIA) is unclear. Seventy-three patients with advanced UGIA were randomised to receive 45 mg/m(2) docetaxel or 180 mg/m(2) irinotecan with 5-FU/leucovorin. After every 2nd course the patients were crossed over to the other regimen. Serum was sampled before start of chemotherapy and every 2nd week during 8 weeks for CEA, TPA, TPS, CA72-4, CA 19-9 and CA242 measurements. Eighteen patients (25%) had partial response (PR) and 21 patients had stable disease for at least 4 months (SD4). All baseline marker levels, except CA72-4, correlated with time to progression and survival. Patients with normal levels, except CA72-4, also had more clinical responses (PR+SD4) than patients with elevated values. Tumour marker changes early during treatment provided modest predictive information for tumour response and survival. A model combining baseline level, the change and the interaction between them gave the best prediction of outcome, however, insignificantly better than baseline level for all markers except CA242. Baseline tumour marker levels provide prognostic information for patients with UGIA on palliative chemotherapy. Early changes generally failed to provide accurate information for tumour response and survival.