Age cohort analysis of the 20th century decline in US farm numbers

The demographic component of the decline in U.S. farm numbers is analysed by tracking the size of farm operator age cohorts. Interpolation of recent irregularly-spaced census data facilitates comparison with earlier agricultural censuses. Cohort profiles indicate an inverted U-shape in the relationship between farm numbers and cohort age. Successive cohorts have been smaller than their predecessors, and withdrawal rates of older operators have fallen in recent years. Projections based on entry-withdrawal patterns for 1987-1992 suggest decline in farm numbers from 1.93 million in 1992 to 1.48 million in 2002 and 1.29 million in 2007. Imbalance between withdrawing older operators and younger new entrants could encourage a broadening of the pool of farm entrants and changes in farm ownership, operating and financing arrangements.