Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall

被引:84
作者
Fowler, HJ [1 ]
Kilsby, CG [1 ]
机构
[1] Newcastle Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England
关键词
extremes; rainfall; UK; flooding; seasonality; climate change;
D O I
10.1029/2003GL017327
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
[1] Future projections from climate models and recent observations show a worldwide increase in both the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, coinciding with widespread flooding and landslides in Europe. It is estimated, using regional frequency analysis, that the magnitude of extreme rainfall has increased two-fold over parts of the UK since the 1960s. Intensities previously experienced, on average, every 25 years now occur at 6 year intervals; a consequence of both increased event frequency and changes in seasonality. These climatic changes may be explained by persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies and have huge economic and social implications in terms of increased flooding.
引用
收藏
页码:53 / 1
页数:4
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