Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications

被引:582
作者
Hansen, J [1 ]
Nazarenko, L
Ruedy, R
Sato, M
Willis, J
Del Genio, A
Koch, D
Lacis, A
Lo, K
Menon, S
Novakov, T
Perlwitz, J
Russell, G
Schmidt, GA
Tausnev, N
机构
[1] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
[2] Columbia Univ, Columbia Earth Inst, New York, NY 10025 USA
[3] SGT Inc, New York, NY 10025 USA
[4] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA
[5] Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10025 USA
[6] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1126/science.1110252
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 +/- 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include(i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.60 degrees C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's tag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.
引用
收藏
页码:1431 / 1435
页数:5
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