Current Demographics Suggest Future Energy Supplies Will Be Inadequate to Slow Human Population Growth

被引:17
作者
DeLong, John P. [1 ]
Burger, Oskar [2 ]
Hamilton, Marcus J. [3 ,4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Yale Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, New Haven, CT 06520 USA
[2] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[3] Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA
[4] Univ New Mexico, Dept Anthropol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA
[5] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA
来源
PLOS ONE | 2010年 / 5卷 / 10期
关键词
FERTILITY;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pone.0013206
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at,13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.
引用
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页数:8
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