The mortality of companies

被引:56
作者
Daepp, Madeleine I. G. [1 ,2 ]
Hamilton, Marcus J. [1 ,3 ]
West, Geoffrey B. [1 ,4 ]
Bettencourt, Luis M. A. [1 ]
机构
[1] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA
[2] Univ British Columbia, Integrated Studies Land & Food Syst, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada
[3] Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ USA
[4] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Math, London, England
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
firm longevity; mergers and acquisitions; survival analysis; stock markets; ORGANIZATIONAL MORTALITY; SCALING BEHAVIOR; AGE-DEPENDENCE; FAILURE; GROWTH; ECONOMICS; NEWNESS; COSTS;
D O I
10.1098/rsif.2015.0120
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The firm is a fundamental economic unit of contemporary human societies. Studies on the general quantitative and statistical character of firms have produced mixed results regarding their lifespans and mortality. We examine a comprehensive database of more than 25 000 publicly traded North American companies, from 1950 to 2009, to derive the statistics of firm lifespans. Based on detailed survival analysis, we show that the mortality of publicly traded companies manifests an approximately constant hazard rate over long periods of observation. This regularity indicates that mortality rates are independent of a company's age. We show that the typical half-life of a publicly traded company is about a decade, regardless of business sector. Our results shed new light on the dynamics of births and deaths of publicly traded companies and identify some of the necessary ingredients of a general theory of firms.
引用
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页数:8
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