Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

被引：36

作者：

Gillett, N. P. ^{[1
]}

Akiyoshi, H. ^{[2
]}

Bekki, S. ^{[3
]}

Braesicke, P. ^{[4
]}

Eyring, V. ^{[5
]}

Garcia, R. ^{[6
]}

Karpechko, A. Yu ^{[7
]}

McLinden, C. A. ^{[8
]}

Morgenstern, O. ^{[4
,9
]}

Plummer, D. A. ^{[1
]}

Pyle, J. A. ^{[4
]}

Rozanov, E. ^{[10
,11
]}

Scinocca, J. ^{[1
]}

Shibata, K. ^{[12
]}

机构：

[1] Environm Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada

[2] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[3] Inst Pierre Simone Laplace, Serv Aeron, Paris, France

[4] Univ Cambridge, Dept Chem, Cambridge Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Cambridge CB2 1TN, England

[5] Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, Inst Atmospher Phys, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

[6] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[7] Finnish Meteorol Inst, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland

[8] Environm Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada

[9] Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Lauder, New Zealand

[10] Phys Meteorol Observ Davos, World Radiat Ctr, Davos, Switzerland

[11] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[12] Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS | 2011年 / 11卷 / 02期

基金：

美国海洋和大气管理局;

关键词：

CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL; DEPLETING SUBSTANCES; MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE; TECHNICAL NOTE; PART I; TRENDS; SIMULATION; TRANSPORT;

D O I：

10.5194/acp-11-599-2011

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

引用

页码：599 / 609

页数：11

共 43 条

[1]

AKIYOSHI H, 2009, ADV MATH, V114, pIL1, DOI DOI 10.1029/2007JD009261

[2] Unusual stratospheric transport and mixing during the 2002 Antarctic winter [J].

Allen, DR ;

Bevilacqua, RM ;

Nedoluha, GE ;

Randall, CE ;

Manney, GL .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2003, 30 (12) :1-1

[3] Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory [J].

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2003, 21 (5-6) :477-491

[4] Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting [J].

Allen, MR ;

Tett, SFB .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1999, 15 (06) :419-434

[5] Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4 [J].

Cordero, E. C. ;

Forster, P. M. de F. .

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 2006, 6 :5369-5380

[6] Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models [J].

Eyring, V. ;

Cionni, I. ;

Bodeker, G. E. ;

Charlton-Perez, A. J. ;

Kinnison, D. E. ;

Scinocca, J. F. ;

Waugh, D. W. ;

Akiyoshi, H. ;

Bekki, S. ;

Chipperfield, M. P. ;

Dameris, M. ;

Dhomse, S. ;

Frith, S. M. ;

Garny, H. ;

Gettelman, A. ;

Kubin, A. ;

Langematz, U. ;

Mancini, E. ;

Marchand, M. ;

Nakamura, T. ;

Oman, L. D. ;

Pawson, S. ;

Pitari, G. ;

Plummer, D. A. ;

Rozanov, E. ;

Shepherd, T. G. ;

Shibata, K. ;

Tian, W. ;

Braesicke, P. ;

Hardiman, S. C. ;

Lamarque, J. F. ;

Morgenstern, O. ;

Pyle, J. A. ;

Smale, D. ;

Yamashita, Y. .

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 2010, 10 (19) :9451-9472

[7]

EYRING V, 2010, WCRP132 WMOTD1526

[8] Response of the middle atmosphere to CO2 doubling:: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model [J].

Fomichev, V. I. ;

Jonsson, A. I. ;

De Grandpre, J. ;

Beagley, S. R. ;

McLandress, C. ;

Semeniuk, K. ;

Shepherd, T. G. .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (07) :1121-1144

[9]

Forster P, 2007, AR4 CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P129

[10] The role of halocarbons in the climate change of the troposphere and stratosphere [J].

Forster, PMD ;

Joshi, M .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2005, 71 (1-2) :249-266

← 1 2 3 4 5 →