Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

被引：226

作者：

Hamilton, JM

Maddison, DJ

Tol, RSJ

机构：

[1] Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Cliamte Res, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[2] Univ So Denmark, Inst Econ, Odense, Denmark

[3] Ctr Cultural Econ & Management, London, England

[4] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands

[5] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

来源：

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2005年 / 15卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

tourism demand; climate change; global model;

D O I：

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.009

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：253 / 266

页数：14

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