Impact of carotid atherosclerosis on long-term mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients

Background. Cardiovascular event is the major cause of mortality in patients on maintenance hemodialysis. We prospectively tested the predictive values of atherosclerotic parameters for all-cause and cardiovascular outcomes in 219 hemodialysis patients (age, 58 +/- 13 years; time on hemodialysis, 13 +/- 7 years; male/female, 144/75). Methods. We measured blood homocysteine (Hcy), ultrasound carotid artery intima media thickness (IMT) and % aortic wall calcification at L2/3 region [% of calcification index in the abdominal aortic wall (% ACI)] by computed tomography (CT) scan, and followed all patients for 5 years. Results. During the follow-up periods, 54 patients (25%) died, 40 (74%) of them of cardiovascular causes. IMT was significantly higher in patients who expired (0.75 +/- 0.02 mm) than in those who survived (0.62 +/- 0.01 mm). IMT was significantly correlated with age (r = 0.47, P < 0.01) and % ACI (r = 0.27, P < 0.01). The survival rate during the observation was significantly lower in the final IMT third (58%) than in the first (90%) and the middle IMT third (80%) (P < 0.01). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that diabetes and IMT became independent determinants of all-cause and cardiovascular death. Adjusted hazards ratios of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality for an increase of 0.1 mm in IMT were 1.31 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.59) and 1.41 (95% CI, 1.12 to 1.76). In contrast, % ACI at abdominal aorta and blood Hcy did not affect their 5-year mortality. Conclusion. These findings suggested that measurement of carotid artery IMT is useful for predicting long-term mortality in patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis.