Fuzzy forecasting based on high-order fuzzy logical relationships and automatic clustering techniques

被引:117
作者
Chen, Shyi-Ming [1 ,2 ]
Tanuwijaya, Kurniawan [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Taiwan Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Comp Sci & Informat Engn, Taipei 106, Taiwan
[2] Natl Taichung Univ Educ, Grad Inst Educ Measurement & Stat, Taichung, Taiwan
关键词
Automatic clustering techniques; Fuzzy forecasting; Fuzzy time series; High-order fuzzy logical relationships; TIME-SERIES MODEL; ENROLLMENTS;
D O I
10.1016/j.eswa.2011.06.019
中图分类号
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号
140502 [人工智能];
摘要
Fuzzy time series models have been widely used to handle forecasting problems, such as forecasting enrollments, temperature, and the stock index. If we can get better forecasting accuracy rates, then we can get more benefits. In this paper, we present a new method to handle forecasting problems using high-order fuzzy logical relationships and automatic clustering techniques. The proposed method uses the proposed automatic clustering algorithm to partition the universe of discourse into different lengths of intervals. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments of the University of Alabama, the temperature and the TAIFEX. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets a higher average forecasting accuracy rate than the existing methods. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:15425 / 15437
页数:13
相关论文
共 22 条
[1]
Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series [J].
Chen, SM .
FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS, 1996, 81 (03) :311-319
[2]
Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series [J].
Chen, SM ;
Hwang, JR .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS MAN AND CYBERNETICS PART B-CYBERNETICS, 2000, 30 (02) :263-275
[3]
Forecasting enrollments based on high-order fuzzy time series [J].
Chen, SM .
CYBERNETICS AND SYSTEMS, 2002, 33 (01) :1-16
[4]
Fuzzy time-series based on adaptive expectation model for TAIEX forecasting [J].
Cheng, Ching-Hsue ;
Chen, Tai-Liang ;
Teoh, Hia Jong ;
Chiang, Chen-Han .
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS, 2008, 34 (02) :1126-1132
[5]
The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series [J].
Huarng, K ;
Yu, THK .
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2006, 363 (02) :481-491
[6]
A Type 2 fuzzy time series model for stock index forecasting [J].
Huarng, K ;
Yu, HK .
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2005, 353 (1-4) :445-462
[7]
Heuristic models of fuzzy time series for forecasting [J].
Huarng, K .
FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS, 2001, 123 (03) :369-386
[8]
Effective lengths of intervals to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series [J].
Huarng, K .
FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS, 2001, 123 (03) :387-394
[9]
A multivariate heuristic model for fuzzy time-series forecasting [J].
Huarng, Kun-Huang ;
Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang ;
Hsu, Yu Wei .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS MAN AND CYBERNETICS PART B-CYBERNETICS, 2007, 37 (04) :836-846
[10]
Ratio-based lengths of intervals to improve fuzzy time series forecasting [J].
Huarng, Kunhuang ;
Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS MAN AND CYBERNETICS PART B-CYBERNETICS, 2006, 36 (02) :328-340