Alternatives to HIV-1 RNA concentration and CD4 count to predict mortality in HIV-1-infected children in resource-poor settings

Cheaper, simpler alternatives to CD4 lymphocyte count and HIV-1 RNA detection for assessing the prognosis of HIV-1 infection are needed for resource-poor settings. However, little is known about the predictive value of alternative assays, in particular in children. We assessed the prognostic value of total lymphocyte count, immune complex-dissociated p24 antigen, white blood cell count, packed-cell volume (haematocrit), and serum albumin for mortality in 376 HIV-1-infected, mainly African-American or Hispanic children enrolled during March, 1988 to January, 1991. In a Cox proportional hazards model, including all assay-alternatives to CD4 and RNA, total lymphocyte count (p<0.0001) and serum albumin (p=0.0107) independently predicted mortality. Further assessment of these markers is warranted in resource-poor settings.