Evaluation of disease forecasting variables for sclerotinia stem rot (Sclerotinia sclerotiorum) of canola

Selected environmental, crop and pathogen variables were sampled weekly from winter and spring canola crops before and during flowering and evaluated for the ability to predict sclerotinia stem rot, caused by Sclertinia sclerotirum. Linear and nonlinear relationships were examined among variables but, because no strong correlations were observed between final disease incidence and any of the variables tested, a categorical approach (e.g., disease severity) was used instead. Disease severity in individual crops was categorized as low (< 20% diseased plants) or high (> 20% disease), and differences in weekly rainfall, soil moisture, crop height, percentage of petal infestation, and number of apothecia m(-2) and clumps of apothecia m(-2) were significantly associated with differences in disease severity within or between years. Two disease prediction models were compared for the ability to predict low or high disease severities using petal infestation alone, or petal infestation in combination with soil moisture. The model that included petal infestation and soil moisture predicted more fields correctly than the model using petal infestation alone, but the accuracy of both was affected by the timing of soil moisture measurements in relation to petal infestation, and threshold values used in discriminating categories of soil moisture and petal infestation.