Confidence intervals and p-values in clinical decision making

被引:41
作者
Akobeng, Anthony K. [1 ]
机构
[1] Cent Manchester & Manchester Childrens Univ Hosp, Dept Paediat Gastroenterol, Booth Hall Childrens Hosp, Manchester M9 7AA, Lancs, England
关键词
clinical significance; confidence interval; hypothesis testing; p-value; statistical significance;
D O I
10.1111/j.1651-2227.2008.00836.x
中图分类号
R72 [儿科学];
学科分类号
100202 [儿科学];
摘要
Clinical trials are usually performed on a sample of people drawn from the population of interest. The results of a trial are, therefore, estimates of what might happen if the treatment were to be given to the entire population of interest. Confidence intervals (CIs) provide a range of plausible values for a population parameter and give an idea about how precise the measured treatment effect is. CIs may also provide some useful information on the clinical importance of results and, like p-values, may also be used to assess 'statistical significance'. Although other CIs can be calculated, the 95% CI is usually reported in the medical literature. In the long run, the 95% CI of an estimate is the range within which we are 95% certain that the true population parameter will lie. Despite the usefulness of the CI approach, hypothesis testing and the generation of p-values are common in the medical literature. The p-value is often used to express the probability that the observed differences between study groups are due to chance. p-values provide no information on the clinical importance of results. Conclusion: It is good practice for authors of research articles to report CIs with their estimates instead of just p-values as p-values are less informative and convey no information on clinical importance.
引用
收藏
页码:1004 / 1007
页数:4
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