Chronic GVHD risk score: a Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research analysis

Several risk factors are associated with increased mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD), but there is considerable variability in the reported factors. Therefore, we evaluated patient, transplantation, and cGVHD characteristics to develop a risk score in 5343 patients with cGVHD. Ten variables were identified as being significant in multivariate analysis of overall survival and nonrelapse mortality (NRM): age, prior acute GVHD, time from trans-plantation to cGVHD, donor type, disease status at transplantation, GVHD prophylaxis, gender mismatch, serum bilirubin, Karnofsky score, and platelet count. These 10 variables were used to build a cGVHD risk score, and 6 risk groups (RGs) were identified. The 5-year NRM was 5% (1%-9%) in RG1, 20% (19%-23%) in RG2, 33% (29%-37%) in RG3, 43% (40%-46%) in RG4, 63% (53%-74%) in RG5, and 72% (59%-85%) in RG6. The 5-year overall survival was highest at 91% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 85%-97%) in RG1, followed by 67% (65%-69%) in RG2, 51% (46%-55%) in RG3, 40% (37%-43%) in RG4, 21% (12%-30%) in RG5, and 4% (0%-9%) in RG6 (all P < .01). This analysis demonstrates the usefulness of data from a large registry to develop risk-score categories for major transplantation outcomes. Validation of this cGVHD risk score is needed in a different population to ensure its broad applicability. (Blood. 2011;117(24):6714-6720)