Factors Associated With Tracking of BMI: A Meta-Regression Analysis on BMI Tracking

Stable tracking of body composition is a prerequisite for the long-term effect of preventive measures against obesity and its harmful effects. As BMI tracking estimates reported by individual studies vary considerably, we performed a meta-regression analysis to provide a summary estimate and to assess determinants of BMI tracking. Using the Medline and EMBASE databases, a systematic review was conducted to identify publications reporting correlation coefficients as tracking estimates between BMI at baseline and follow-up measurements and the time interval between these measurements. Additional information recorded included age at baseline measurement, gender, and origin of the studied population. Based on the extracted data, a meta-regression analysis was performed using mixed effects models to account for multiple measurements of the same cohorts. Data on 55,072 individuals (797,094 person-years) extracted from 48 publications with follow-up times between 0.5 and 44 years entered the analysis. The overall estimates for the 1-year tracking correlation coefficient were strong (r = 0.78-0.86 depending on age at baseline measurement) and gradually decreasing over time (0.67-0.78 after 10 years, and 0.27-0.47 after 30 years). Study origin classified by continent was another significant predictor of BMI tracking whereas gender was not. In conclusion, this meta-regression analysis showed a high degree of BMI tracking across all age groups investigated and independent of BMI. Successful prevention in weight control is likely to have long-term effects at any age, thereby being beneficial with respect to the associated risks of over-and underweight.