Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

被引：111

作者：

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu ^{[1
]}

Timmermann, Axel ^{[1
,2
]}

Luo, Jing-Jia ^{[3
]}

Mochizuki, Takashi ^{[4
]}

Kimoto, Masahide ^{[5
]}

Watanabe, Masahiro ^{[5
]}

Ishii, Masayoshi ^{[6
]}

Xie, Shang-Ping ^{[7
]}

Jin, Fei-Fei ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[2] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Oceanog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[3] Bur Meteorol, Ctr Australian Weather & Climate Res, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia

[4] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Kanazawa Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan

[5] Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778568, Japan

[6] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan

[7] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[8] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Meteorol, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2015年 / 6卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE; OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE; DATA ASSIMILATION; WARMING HIATUS; INDO-PACIFIC; EL-NINO; ATLANTIC; ENSO; CIRCULATION;

D O I：

10.1038/ncomms7869

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

引用

页数：7

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