Objective: Analysis, results, and implications of a supply and demand workforce model for physical medicine and rehabilitation. Explicit issues addressed include: (1) the supply implications of maintaining current (1994-1995) output of physiatrists from residency programs; (2) the implications of continued growth in managed care on the demand for the services of physiatrists; (3) likely future supply and demand conditions; and (4) strategies to adapt to future conditions. Design: A workforce model of the supply and demand for physiatrists was developed. Parameters of the model are estimated using econometric models and by applying the judgments of a consensus panel. The model evaluated several different scenarios regarding managed care growth, competition from other providers and other factors. Results: Based on the analysis, physiatrists will continue to be in excess demand through the year 2000. More aggressive growth in managed care can affect this result. Conclusions: Based on an overall assessment of supply and demand conditions, and under the assumption that the supply of new entrants each year remains in the range of the 1994-1995 levels, demand for physiatrists will continue to exceed supply, on average, through the year 2000. Excess supply has, and will, emerge in selected geographic areas. If the profession is successful in informing the market regarding the advantages of physiatry, the profession can continue to grow without experiencing excess supply, in the aggregate, for the foreseeable future. (C) 1996 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
