Predicting population responses to resource management

The use of limited funding to optimal effect in conservation depends on the costs and benefits of different approaches to predicting population responses to management action. Resource management based on predictions from various classes of population-level model has had success in increasing populations of at-risk species. However, such models might not meet policy demand for more accurate predictions of the extent of population recovery. This is because, by necessity, they often extrapolate from known data to predict the effect of new environmental conditions. Behaviourally structured population models could deliver greater prediction accuracy because they can truly predict population-level responses to novel situations. If such an approach can be applied to new situations, it could play an increasing role in the prediction of population recovery following management.