Hydrologic calibration of the SWAT model in a watershed containing fragipan soils

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, designed for use on rural ungaged basins and incorporating a GRASS GIS interface, was used to model the hydrologic response of the Ariel Creek watershed of northeastern Pennsylvania. Model evaluation of daily flow prior to calibration revealed a deviation of runoff volumes (D-v) of 68.3 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of -0.03. Model performance was affected by unusually large observed snowmelt events and the inability of the model to accurately simulate baseflow, which was influenced by the presence of fragipans. Seventy-five percent of the soils in the watershed contain fragipans. Model calibration yielded a D-v of 39.9 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.04, when compared on a daily basis. Monthly comparisons yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.14. Snowmelt events in the springs of 1993 and 1994, which were unusually severe, were not adequately simulated. Neglecting these severe events, which produced the largest and third largest measured flows for the period of record, a D-v of 4.1 percent and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.20 were calculated on a daily comparison, while on a monthly basis the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.55. These results suggest that the SWAT model is better suited to longer period simulations of hydrologic yields. Baseflow volumes were accurately simulated after calibration (D-v = -0.2 percent). Refinements made to the algorithms controlling subsurface hydrology and snowmelt, to better represent the presence of fragipans and snowmelt events, would likely improve model performance.