Long-term seismogenic process for major earthquakes in subduction zones

A qualitative physical process for the long-term seismogenesis of major earthquakes in subduction zones is proposed on the basis of quantitative empirical evidence that swarms, mainshocks acid aftershocks are closely related phenomena. The relations, which have been identified in the comprehensive, long-term catalogues of New Zealand and Japan, represent swarms as predictors of mainshocks with respect to location, time and magnitude. Clustering of swarms and of mainshock/aftershock events is allowed for. With a database of 15 sequences of swarms, mainshocks and aftershocks, tests are being conducted with the object of refining the relations and evaluating them as a possible means of practical synoptic forecasting. Three sequences have culminated in major earthquakes since the tests began, and the systematic study now relates a total of 36 swarms with 29 mainshock/aftershock events. These empirical results strengthen and quantify the connection between swarms and major earthquakes, which several authors have demonstrated by means of numerical/physical modelling. The proposed seismogenic process includes swarms, mainshocks and aftershocks as separate event stages which are related by predictability. Interevent conditions are specified according to the Mogi criteria for the medium; cracks at which fractures subsequently occur constitute nonuniformity in the Mogi sense, and post-earthquake healing restores uniformity. Where the Gutenberg-Richter relation occurs, it is accepted as possible evidence of deterministic chaos and unpredictability; as a corollary, the process is noncyclical. The principle of scaling is held to apply except when modified by large-scale boundaries in the medium. Subduction zones and some other localities where water is abundant are indicated by the main empirical studies as favourable to the occurrence of swarms. Fluid overpressuring is therefore proposed as a mechanism for the self-triggering of swarms, and this is supported by additional examples of the predictive relations occurring in conditions of high fluid pressure, including the vicinity of large man-made reservoirs. The process can be tested by systematic studies in other subduction regions, given adequate catalogues for quantifying the algorithm. It also has implications for other tectonic environments, with swarms replaced by cognate, more protracted seismicity precursors. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.