Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall

被引：110

作者：

Wang, Wei ^{[1
,2
]}

Lu, Hui ^{[2
,3
]}

Leung, L. Ruby ^{[4
]}

Li, Hong-Yi ^{[5
,6
]}

Zhao, Jianshi ^{[7
]}

Tian, Fuqiang ^{[7
]}

Yang, Kun ^{[2
,3
]}

Sothea, Khem ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Changjiang Inst Survey Planning Design & Res, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China

[2] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China

[3] Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China

[4] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA

[5] Montana State Univ, Dept Land Resources & Environm Sci, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA

[6] Montana State Univ, Inst Ecosyst, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA

[7] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Mekong Inst Cambodia, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2017年 / 44卷 / 20期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

TONLE-SAP LAKE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; IMPACT ASSESSMENT; DISCHARGE; UNCERTAINTY; PROJECTIONS; ECOSYSTEM; MODELS; STATES; PULSE;

D O I：

10.1002/2017GL075037

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large-scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-LMK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the LMRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, stream regulation by dam reduces flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

引用

页码：10378 / 10386

页数：9

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[4]

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