Prediction of petroleum exploration risk and subterranean spatial distribution of hydrocarbon accumulations

被引:15
作者
Xie Hongbing [1 ,2 ]
Guo Qiulin [2 ]
Li Feng [3 ]
Li Jianzhong [2 ]
Wu Na [2 ]
Hu Suyun [2 ]
Liang Kun [2 ]
机构
[1] China Univ Geosci, Sch Energy Resources, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
[2] PetroChina, Res Inst Petr Explorat & Dev, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
[3] China Natl Petr Corp, Sci & Technol Management Dept, Beijing 100007, Peoples R China
关键词
Hydrocarbon resources; abundance; risk forecast; Nanpu sag; frequency spectrum simulation; fractal theory; CONDITIONAL SPECTRAL SIMULATION;
D O I
10.1007/s12182-011-0110-8
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
Investigation of spatial distribution of oil and gas resource and accurate prediction of the geographic location of its undiscovered resource is significant for reducing exploration risk and improving exploration benefit. A new method for predicting spatial distribution of oil resource is discussed in this paper. It consists of prediction of risk probability in petroleum exploration and simulation of hydrocarbon abundance. Exploration risk probability is predicted by multivariate statistics, fuzzy mathematics and information processing techniques. A spatial attribute database for sample wells was set up and the Mahalanobis distance and Fuzzy value of given samples were obtained. Then, the Bayesian formula was used to calculate the hydrocarbon-bearing probability at the area of exploration wells. Finally, a hydrocarbon probability template is formed and used to forecast the probability of the unknown area. The hydrocarbon abundance is simulated based on Fourier integrals, frequency spectrum synthesis and fractal theory. Firstly, the fast Fourier transformation (FFT) is used to transform the known hydrocarbon abundance from the spatial domain to the frequency domain, then, frequency spectrum synthesis is used to produce the fractal frequency spectrum, and FFT is applied to get the phase information of hydrocarbon-bearing probability. Finally, the frequency spectrum simulation is used to calculate the renewed hydrocarbon abundance in the play. This method is used to predict the abundance and possible locations of the undiscovered petroleum accumulations in the Nanpu Sag of the Bohai Bay Basin, China. The prediction results for the well-explored onshore area of the northern Nanpu Sag agree well with the actual situations. For the less-explored offshore areas in the southern Nanpu Sag, the prediction results suggest high hydrocarbon abundance in Nanpu-1 and Nanpu-2, providing a useful guiding for future exploration.
引用
收藏
页码:17 / 23
页数:7
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