Subsidence and stress change in the cerro prieto geothermal field, B. C., Mexico

Previous works have shown that ground deformation and seismicity in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field (CPGF) are due to both tectonics and field exploitation. Here, we use information about current tectonics and data from precision leveling surveys, to model tectonic and anthropogenic subsidence. Our results show that tectonic subsidence constitutes only similar to 4% of the measured subsidence. Anthropogenic subsidence was evaluated using a model of rectangular tensional cracks, based on the hydrological model of the field, together with the Coulomb 2.0 program. From the resulting values of the fissure parameters and from extraction and injection data, we calculate that the volume changes caused by closure of the geothermal and cold water reservoirs account for only similar to 3% and similar to 7%, respectively, of the volume change which should occur due to extraction. Since 18% of the extracted fluids are reinjected, external recharge must compensate for about 72% of the expected volume reduction. An analysis of the changes in Coulomb stress caused by exploitation of the geothermal field suggest that even though the anthropogenic stresses account for only a fraction of tectonic stresses, they are large enough to trigger seismicity.