An investigation into the application of different performance prediction methods to distributed enterprise applications

Response time predictions for workload on new server architectures can enhance Service Level Agreement-based resource management. This paper evaluates two performance prediction methods using a distributed enterprise application benchmark. The historical method makes predictions by extrapolating from previously gathered performance data, while the layered queuing method makes predictions by solving layered queuing networks. The methods are evaluated in terms of: the systems that can be modelled; the metrics that can be predicted; the ease with which the models can be created and the level of expertise required; the overheads of recalibrating a model; and the delay when evaluating a prediction. The paper also investigates how a prediction-enhanced resource management algorithm can be tuned so as to compensate for predictive inaccuracy and balance the costs of SLA violations and server usage.