Correlates of immunity to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated-hospitalization: establishment of minimum protective threshold levels of serum neutralizing antibodies

Objective: To determine if respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific, serum antibody titers correlate with protection against RSV associated-hospitalization at all ages. Design: Participants who were enrolled in a trial to determine the frequency of specific virus infections associated with hospitalization [J. Am. Med. Assoc. 283 (2000) 499] were included in our analysis if they were enrolled from July 1991 to June 1993, had a culture for virus isolation, and provided blood samples at hospitalization and 14-60 days later. RSV infection was defined by a positive culture and/or serology. Microneutralization, ELISA to the fusion (F) protein and Western blot were the serological assays that were used to determine correlates of immunity. Results: One hundred and seventy-five individuals, I month to 89 years old, out of 538 patients hospitalized with an acute respiratory infection met the criteria for analysis. RSV as sociated-hospitalization occurred in 11 (40.7%) of 27 infants (< 1 year), 8 (38.1%) of 21 young children (1 to <5 years), and 15 (11.8%) of 127 children and adults (greater than or equal to5 years). At the time of hospitalization, geometric mean neutralizing antibody titers (log(2)) to RSV/A and RSV/B, and geometric mean binding antibody titer (1092) to F protein were significantly higher in patients with non-RSV associated-hospitalization compared to those with RSV associated-hospitalization (RSV/A: 7.9 versus 6.1, P < 0.001; RSV/B: 9.4 versus 7.3, P < 0.001; ELISA-F, 13.9 versus 12.6, P = 0.01). For every 1 log(2) increase in titer of neutralizing antibodies to RSV/A and RSV/B, and binding antibody to F protein there was a significant increase in the likelihood of not having an RSV associated-hospitalization by 22.3, 25, and 24.4% respectively. A minimal protective threshold titer of greater than or equal to6.0 (odds ratio 3.5; 95% CI 1.4-9.1) and greater than or equal to8.0 log(2) (odds ratio 2.9; 95% CI 1.1-7.7) against RSV associated-hospitalization was established for neutralizing antibodies to RSV/A and RSV/B; a threshold titer could not be established for binding antibody to F protein. Conclusion: Participants with naturally acquired serum neutralizing antibody levels at least equal to the minimal protective threshold titer were approximately three times more likely not to have an RSV associated-hospitalization. We speculate that achieving a minimal protective threshold antibody titer through active immunization will significantly reduce RSV associated-hospitalization among all ages. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.