Early warning in the light of theories of technological change

Current interest in early warning can be understood as a natural response to the regularity with which hearth service planners have been overwhelmed by new technology. Planning the rational introduction of a new technology should be facilitated by advance warning of its imminent arrival on the market. Current approaches to early warning tend to rely on the insights and expectations of scientific and clinical experts in the field in question, In this paper it is argued that such an approach fails to recognize important changes that have occurred both in the innovation process itself, and in theoretical understanding of it. With the more complex roles that governments now play, and with the increasingly articulate demands of consumers, the innovation process has become more complex. At the same time, it is now clear that the innovation process embodies a multitude of choices. Approaches to early warning must be compatible with these new perspectives.