Climate variation and crop production in Georgia, USA, during the twentieth century

被引:45
作者
Alexandrov, VA
Hoogenboom, G [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Georgia, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Griffin, GA 30223 USA
[2] Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Sofia 1784, Bulgaria
关键词
Georgia; climate variability; El Nino; crop yield; statistical models;
D O I
10.3354/cr017033
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Most climate variability studies have been conducted at a regional level in which it was assumed that the climate was uniform for each individual climatic zone. The objective of this study was to determine climate variability at a local level for the entire state of Georgia during the 20th century. Daily historical weather data for 85 weather stations were analyzed for the period 1901-1997. Annual air temperature for the century showed a statistically significant negative trend. A similar tendency was found for both the warm- and cold-half of the year, as well as the individual winter, spring and summer seasons. Georgia has experienced several drought episodes during the 20th century, especially during the 1930s, 1950s and 1980s, Drought was most severe in 1954 across central and south Georgia, with precipitation less than 35% of the normal (1961-1990) climatic values. A decrease in precipitation during the warm-half of the year (April-September) from the end of 1970s until present was found. Although there was an increase in summer precipitation from the beginning of the 1980s, the overall trend showed a decrease in summer precipitation. Most El Nino episodes during the cold-half of the year featured an increased frequency of occurrences of above normal precipitation. During the autumn El Nino events, Georgia has tended to be warmer than the normal climatic conditions. However, almost all classified winter El Ninos were connected by lower mean air temperature during the winter season. This lower temperature during the winter resulted in an increase in winter wheat yield. Higher air temperatures during the growing season resulted in a shorter growing duration, causing a reduction in yield. The spring and summer crops used in this study were affected by both precipitation deficits and higher air temperatures during the warm-half of the year. Since 1961, maize yield was higher in most years when El Nino events occurred during the warm-half of the year, The statistical linear yield models that were developed in this study can be used for assessments of expected anomalies of mean winter wheat, maize, soybean, peanut and cotton yield in Georgia for a particular year.
引用
收藏
页码:33 / 43
页数:11
相关论文
共 59 条
  • [1] Afifi A.A., 1979, Statistical Analysis: A Computer-Oriented Approach
  • [2] ALLAN RJ, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P743, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0743:AFEOTT>2.0.CO
  • [3] 2
  • [4] [Anonymous], 1996, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • [5] Carlson RE, 1996, J PROD AGRIC, V9, P347
  • [6] Cayan DR, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3148, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3148:DVOPOW>2.0.CO
  • [7] 2
  • [8] *CRU, 1999, SO OSC IND SOI
  • [9] DECKER W, 1988, USE STAT CLIMATE CRO
  • [10] *EARTH INC, 1997, DAT GUID EARTH CD NC