Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand

A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and onsite observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6x10(-4)/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.