Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan

被引:205
作者
Wu, Pei-Chih
Guo, How-Ran
Lung, Shih-Chun
Lin, Chuan-Yao
Su, Huey-Jen
机构
[1] Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Coll Med, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth, Tainan 70428, Taiwan
[2] Acad Sinica, Res Ctr Environm Changes, Taipei 115, Taiwan
关键词
dengue fever; weather; autoregressive integrated moving average models; temperature; relative humidity; Aedes aegypti;
D O I
10.1016/j.actatropica.2007.05.014
中图分类号
R38 [医学寄生虫学]; Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ; 100103 ;
摘要
We evaluated the impacts of weather variability on the occurrence of dengue fever in a major metropolitan city, Kaohsiung, in southern Taiwan using time-series analysis. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models showed that the incidence of dengue fever was negatively associated with monthly temperature deviation (beta = -0.126, p = 0.044), and a reverse association was also found with relative humidity (beta = -0.025, p = 0.048). Both factors were observed to present their most prominent effects at a time lag of 2 months. Meanwhile, vector density record, a conventional approach often applied as a predictor for outbreak, did not appear to be a good one for diseases occurrence. Weather variability was identified as a meaningful and significant indicator for the increasing occurrence of dengue fever in this study, and it might be feasible to be adopted for predicting the influences of rising average temperature on the occurrence of infectious diseases of such kind at a city level. Further studies should take into account variations of socio-ecological changes and disease transmission patterns to better propose the increasing risk for infectious disease outbreak by applying the conveniently accumulated information of weather variability. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:50 / 57
页数:8
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