Clusters of impaired normal elderly do not decline cognitively in 3 to 5 years

The ability of clusters of psychometric profiles to predict cognitive decline 3 to 5 years later was examined. Using Ward's method, researchers conducted cluster analysis of age- and education-corrected Mayo Cognitive Factor Scale (MCFS) scores obtained at first evaluation for 376 normal elderly. Results revealed 4 of 16 cluster profiles were predicted to represent at-risk status for future cognitive decline; 258 of the original sample completed psychometric reassessment. Membership in an at-risk cluster did not powerfully predict subsequent medical evaluation of cognitive or psychiatric disorder or status as lost to follow-up. Repeated measures analyses of variance of MCFS scores showed no differential decline in learning or memory between normal and at-risk clusters. Thus, in a nonclinical sample, relative cognitive impairments are not powerfully predictive of future cognitive decline.