Are women's employment and fertility histories interdependent? An examination of causal order using event history analysis

The negative correlation between women's employment and fertility is well documented. However, the causal nature of that relationship is not clearly understood. Does increased fertility decrease labor force participation? Or, does labor force participation decrease fertility? Or are both true? Data from the 1979-1994 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth are examined using event history analysis. Detailed part-time and full-time employment histories and time-sensitive measures of fertility are analyzed. Findings indicate that both pregnancy and the number of preschoolers hinder non-employed women's entrance to the work force. While pregnancy has no effect on employed women's hazard of exit, preschool children increase the hazard of labor force exit for full-time workers. Older children have the opposite effect: they encourage full-time employment. Older children decrease the likelihood that mothers will exit either part- or full-time employment and increase the likelihood that non-employed mothers will enter full-time employment. Finally, both part- and full-time employment reduce women's hazard of pregnancy. Findings are consistent across racial and ethnic categories. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.