Quantitative inferences of past hypolimnetic anoxia in south-central Ontario lakes using fossil midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The ability to infer long-term changes in hypolimnetic oxygen levels is important for ecological studies of eutrophication and the impacts of climatic change on freshwater lakes. We examined the distributions of fossil midge (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages in the surface sediments of 54 south-central Ontario lakes and, using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), determined if fossil chironomid assemblages could be used to reconstruct levels of hypolimnetic anoxia in thermally stratifying Laurentian Shield lakes. Anoxia was expressed as the anoxic factor (AF), which represents the days per season that a sediment area equal to a lake's surface area is overlain by anoxic water. Forward selection in CCA showed that AF, maximum depth, [SO4] [Na], and watershed area all explained significant portions of species variation. A weighted-averaging regression and calibration model of the chironomid-anoxia relationship was developed which suggests that it is possible to infer AF from fossil chironomid assemblages ((r(appar)(2)) = 0.70, bootstrapped RMSE = 6.5 days/summer). Quantitative reconstruction of past changes in anoxia using fossil Chironomidae should provide a new and useful tool for paleoecological assessments of lake ecosystems.