New insights on cheetah conservation through demographic modeling

Researchers have recently argued that ecological factors, especially high levels of cub predation, are more important then genetic impoverishment in limiting wild populations of the endangered cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). Despite considerable controversy, however, the forces actually driving cheetah population dynamics remain unclear. We used a combination of demographic techniques to investigate how variation in survival and reproduction might influence the population persistence of wild cheetahs. We parameterized our models using detailed demographic data from recently published, long-term ecological projects on cheetahs of the Serengeti. Results suggest that the influence of juvenile survivorship on population growth rate is relatively small compared to the large effects of adult survivorship. This result is consistent across a range of vital rates and is robust to deviations due to sampling error and environmental variability. These conclusions cast a new light on the current cheetah controversy and, more generally, counsel caution in the interpretation of ecological data for conservation and management.