Probabilities as similarity-weighted frequencies

被引：35

作者：

Billot, A ^{[1
]}

Gilboa, I

Samet, D

Schmeidler, D

机构：

[1] Univ Paris 02, IUF, F-75231 Paris, France

[2] ENPC, CERAS, F-75231 Paris, France

[3] Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Econ, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel

[4] Yale Univ, Cowles Fdn Res Econ, New Haven, CT 06511 USA

[5] Ohio State Univ, Dept Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA

来源：

ECONOMETRICA | 2005年 / 73卷 / 04期

关键词：

probability; similarity; case-based reasoning; relative frequencies;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.

引用

页码：1125 / 1136

页数：12

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